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Did anyone see this coming? Honestly, I didn't think that Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Four Christmases, starring Vince Vaughn and Reese Witherspoon, would be the number-one movie over the five-day Thanksgiving time period. According to preliminary data at Boxofficemojo, the holiday flick took in more than $46 million at domestic theaters for the Wednesday-through-Sunday frame. I've seen the ad campaign for Christmases, and I have no intention of taking in a screening of it. I guess it was the right product at the right time.

Summit Entertainment's Twilight came in second with $39 million. Considering how hyped up this one was, and how much of an ardent following it seems to possess, frankly, I'm surprised. Where were all the teens to push this to the top of the heap? They were certainly available to pack the theaters. And those who saw it during its debut weekend had ample opportunity to engage a repeat viewing or two. Still, at a reported budget of about $37 million, the project should be profitable for Summit Entertainment (I wish I knew how much was being spent on marketing, though). It's total take so far is approaching $120 million.

Bolt from Disney (NYSE: DIS) was third with $36 million. So far, its total gross stands at almost $67 million. I'm disappointed that the cartoon isn't closer to $100 million by now. I mean, this is the Disney brand we're talking about. Plus, Bolt could be considered a test of both John Lasseter's hit-making skill and of the value of the Pixar purchase (as I alluded to in a previous piece). I expected more from this one, and I'm sure Disney execs were counting on a higher gross by this point as well (no matter what they will say in public).

If you thought Black Friday was just for brick-and-mortar retail, think again. The official start of the online shopping rush is the Monday after the Thanksgiving holiday (Cyber Monday is its name), but don't think that companies like Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) are going to wait that long. They're in the game now. And they want your attention. More importantly, they want you to use the virtual shopping carts at their respective sites early and often. It's really crucial this year, because the economy stinks, and growth in spending isn't going to be great.

According to CNBC, Amazon's strategy is to use very low prices as a way of stopping competitors like eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) dead in their electronic tracks. This Christmas season, retailers, whether online or not, may find themselves in a no-win situation. They have to lower prices to encourage people to shop. But quality growth in top-line sales is questionable. When managements see the bad news flow about the global recession, they become scared and want to become even more aggressive in terms of pricing. The strategy may work and it may not. It's a vicious circle. Don't get me wrong, the retail industry faces this problem every year at this time, but you have to agree that the current economic cycle is particularly noxious. It's times like these, however, when retailers should want to offer more than just a value proposition. They should want to offer a differentiated shopping experience, a better selection of items. They should strive to offer up a brand image that makes you want to hit their inventories first. They need to step away from trying to undercut all their competitors and instead figure out how to stock the right merchandise in the right amounts. And when it comes to a business like Amazon, I think there's great opportunity to go beyond low-pricing strategies. Quite frankly, I don't care whether Amazon has the lowest prices or not. I find it easier to do some of my holiday shopping on the site. It saves me time during this busy season, I trust the security of the platform, and I know that the supply chain is efficient and reliable. And I definitely think of Amazon first when looking to do online shopping because of its valuable brand equity.

Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD) is scheduled to report earnings for the third quarter on Tuesday, December 2. The expectation is for a loss of $0.49 per share. I think it's therefore safe to say that the retailer won't be turning a profit.

Sears has been one awful retail story as of late. Actually, just about every retailer has been awful as of late. It's no surprise, of course, considering the economy. But Sears has been experiencing challenges even beyond what can be explained by the economy. The company has been missing estimates, same-store sales haven't been great, and if you take the time to talk to people about Sears, or if you follow the comments of pundits, you'll sometimes note a tone of repulsion when it comes to the big chain.

I haven't been a fan of the shopping experience at Sears either, and it's been a very, very long time since I've stepped into a Kmart. In fact, there isn't a Kmart close to me. Eddie Lampert's enormous task of helping to turn this ship around is not one I envy. Of course, many retailers make the mistake of only focusing on merchandising in the stores and figuring out what should be in the weekly circulars. Don't get me wrong, that's important stuff. But Sears needs to engage a branding campaign to make people feel good about its stores, to feel confident about the shopping environment. When you look at TV ads by Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Target (NYSE: TGT), you can't help but marvel at the branding acumen of those retailers. Sears needs to get creative, too.

Computer-networking icon Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) is trying to cut costs wherever it can. In a sign of the times, Cisco will shut offices for four days during the Christmas/New-Year period in an effort to defend its profit margins (critical operations will remain open). Other tech companies that are trying to utilize time off for employees as a way of saving money include Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) and Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE).

When I read headlines like this, it makes me doubt the current rally we've seen in the markets. Indeed, bear-market rallies are common when things get way oversold. Then the euphoria gets put in perspective when we realize that it's going to be a long time until the economy truly finds its way back into a cycle of growth.

Businesses like Cisco will suffer from declining top-line sales as its customers become increasingly conservative with their investment capital. At that point, the only defensive move is to cut costs. And that's not a great position to be in. It limits management's ability to run operations, and it sends a bad message to Wall Street. Like some people have been saying, tools such as cost-cutting and layoffs aren't necessarily being perceived as positive elements in this cycle; they only serve to accentuate the dread of the slowing global economy.

I saw some interesting Nielsen data posted at Silicon Alley Insider the other day about traffic levels at eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY). They seem to be on the decline. I don't want to spend time repeating a bunch of the numbers here, but suffice to say that trends in unique visitors and page views on a year-over-year basis have not been favorable to the online-auction entity. One quick example would be the 33% drop for the page-view category seen in October.

What the heck is going on? Man, I remember when eBay was loved unconditionally and considered to be the best yard sale on the block. Heck, it wasn't just for closet-cleaning exercises; a person infused with even a modicum of an entrepreneurial spirit could easily start a business on the site. And its brand was second-to-none in this space. Well, eBay's brand equity remains high, but the bloom has definitely come off the rose, at least from my perspective.

On an anecdotal basis, I've heard many complaints about eBay, especially from the point of view of the sellers. But there's no question that eBay has to do something about the declining stats. People are spending less time at the site, and that surely won't do much in terms of appeasing the sellers.

Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG) released its Q4 earnings on Tuesday. Did the numbers have all the makings of a hit? To start off, revenues declined over 1%. That's not hit material, to be certain. Here's something that might get your toes tapping, however: income from continuing operations came in at $0.04 per share, a pretty musical achievement considering that analysts thought that a loss of $0.02 per share would be recorded. And I have to note that the company did pretty good on the free-cash-flow front (I also noted this in a previous piece).

But here's the deal with Warner Music Group: like the music industry in general, it's still trying to adjust to the digital age. Buying music recorded on physical media just isn't where it's at these days, thanks to Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and others. The music industry would really love to get more money for their content, but because of the popularity of the low-pricing scheme at iTunes and other download sites, I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon. Indeed, when I purchase songs at Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), I really appreciate that $0.99 price point, and I probably would loathe paying $1.29, $1.39, etc., per tune.

In the end, even with the earnings beat, I'm not sure I could seriously consider Warner Music Group as a great investment idea. Forget that the company's release schedule is reportedly being affected by the recession and that this may shift potential earnings excitement to the latter part of the year -- you've got to remember that this is a low-priced stock in a difficult market environment. As of Tuesday's close, Warner Music Group was trading for less than $3 per share. The stock has been very weak lately, a falling knife, in fact. Best not to attempt a catch of this particular blade.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), whose competitors at the mall include Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) and Gap (NYSE: GPS), is part of a sector I'm not much of a fan of currently: retail. Just saying the word aloud makes it sound repulsive these days. Don't get me wrong, retail will come back (someday). For now, though, it's difficult to look at the numbers associated with the industry, especially the same-store sales.

Looking at American Eagle, I can see that its third quarter was, as expected, not too inspiring. Adjusted earnings per share dropped 33% to $0.30. Worse, comps plunged 7%. Last year at this time, comps increased 2%.

It's tough out there, folks, and it probably will get tougher. American Eagle, like every retailer out there, is facing a perplexing problem. What's the best way to get traffic through the door? Marketing and promotions. What do retailers have to focus on this Christmas season? Containment of costs. Margins are important, and management doesn't want them to deteriorate too badly. You can see the challenge. Plus, American Eagle can't really count on its target shopper. Young people are oftentimes fickle and ready to jump to some other business near the food court. Not a great position to be in.

There was a short blurb about Xerox (NYSE: XRX) in the news on Monday. Management at the company wanted investors to know that it won't be needing to beg for the green stuff. Cash flow from operating activities, existing credit facilities, and a leaner business will carry the technology company through the current difficult period. Xerox gave a wide earnings range for 2009, saying it should book between $1 and $1.25 per share. Analysts are counting on $1.15 per share.

Well, that range makes it kind of difficult to predict how things will turn out in terms of whether the company will beat Wall Street or not; might as well flip a quarter. The more important thing to focus on is that Xerox will be profitable and that it is confident in its liquidity. The stock was up almost 18% at the close yesterday on nice volume. With the recent rally, should you look at Xerox as an investment, or a trade?

Xerox isn't one of my favorite stocks. I have no interest in it on a long-term basis. It just isn't a leading innovator these days, and there are way better alternatives out there if you want a core, long-term holding in the tech sector. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) are three names off the top of my head I'd look at first.

Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) seemed to have an okay first quarter. Revenue rose 3%, and earnings per share on an adjusted basis increased 10% to $0.77. This beat expectations by a penny, according to this source. Now, I agree, these numbers weren't great, but did you see the reaction to the stock on Monday? It closed down over 7.5% on better-than-average volume. Did the stock deserve such a beating? Was the selling a buying opportunity?

Well, as I've been saying, many stocks are great for long-term buying. How many times have you heard that people will be looking back at this current state of volatility after several years have passed only to conclude that it was one of the best buying opportunities of a lifetime? Campbell Soup is probably applicable to that cliche. However, the fact that the market rallied on Monday and Campbell Soup didn't participate might mean something. It might mean that the fears of currency translations and their effect on future earnings (this was mentioned in the press release and in news reports) will indeed cause the company some problems in the next several months.

What does this mean for someone who wants to pick up shares of the soup concern? Be wary, especially if you're sick and tired of picking up stocks at the wrong time. Even long-term thinkers don't want to feel a need to double-down a week after entering a position. No, I'm not saying Campbell Soup will tank that fast after the Q1 report. In fact, it may very well bounce from here.

I just didn't like the price action on Monday, so I probably would wait a little bit before considering the stock. Like Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), and Kellogg (NYSE: K), Campbell Soup is a dividend play backed by a powerful line of supermarket products. However, like all those companies, international exposure is a big part of its thesis. So one must recognize that shares of Campbell Soup must be approached carefully considering all the headlines as of late concerning the effect of overseas sales.

Disclosure: I own Coca-Cola; positions can change at any time.

On Saturday of this past weekend, I was discussing the domestic box-office potential of Summit Entertainment's Twilight with a friend of mine (we didn't discuss the ranking potential since one didn't need to be a clairvoyant to see a first-place showing in the film's immediate future).

I initially proffered a $100 million take in terms of a prediction, but then backed down and decided that $80 million might be more like it. I wasn't sure if Twilight, even with all its hype, could possibly propel itself to a number that was recorded in three digits. Well, in an overall sense, I was completely wrong. Although the movie didn't make $100 million, I still obviously thought that it was stronger than it turned out to be.

According to published estimates from Boxofficemojo at the time of this writing (final numbers are due later), Twilight pulled in around $70 million. Don't get me wrong, that's a big take, and the movie did beat Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Quantum of Solace, which came in second. But, according to the daily estimates, the Friday-through-Sunday numbers show a decidedly negative trend.

It's interesting, too, because when I saw the $35 million Friday figure, I really thought that something higher than $70 million would be the end result. On Saturday, however, Twilight's take dropped over 40% when compared to its opening day, and on Sunday, the drop was almost 35% compared to Saturday.

The Dow was up nearly 500 points on Friday. Everything's fine, right? Not on your life. It's going to be a lousy Christmas for mall retailers such as Gap (NYSE: GPS) and Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), and it might be especially lousy for AnnTaylor (NYSE: ANN). What a pathetic story this one is.

AnnTaylor reported earnings for the third quarter yesterday, and it's stock closed down more than 9% on better-than-average volume. Here's why: the bottom line broke even on an adjusted basis, the analysts were calling for a penny earnings per share, and same-store sales plummeted -- I mean plummeted -- more than 19%. Those comps fell like the public approval rating of a CEO's compensation package in the context of the current economic quagmire (well, actually, they didn't fall that badly). The fact that the stock dropped only about 9% is pretty amazing. I think the decline should have gone well into the double digits. After all, management at AnnTaylor really has no idea how its Christmas season will ultimately turn out. Well, they have a little bit of an idea. They know it's going to stink. Badly. I suppose it was the euphoria of the day that kept a check on the stock's decline.

Retail is in the doghouse. Even biggies like Walmart (NYSE: WMT) and Target (NYSE: TGT) are going to have to hustle more than ever before to keep ahead of their competitors in this dreadful recessionary environment and hope that they can convince their shoppers to pull out as much of the green stuff as possible at their respective points of sale. It won't be easy. And if the big brand names are finding it challenging out there, then a colleague like AnnTaylor might not have much of a chance of bringing traffic out from the cold and onto the sales floor. As far as the shares go, I think they will be heading lower. I mean, I don't think there's much of a mystery there. I can't see what would possibly make the shares go higher from here. Then again, we have been trading on an irrational playfield as of late, so I do suppose anything is possible. For me, I'll stay away from AnnTaylor and make certain that my portfolio has nothing to do with it.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Well, it looks like Heinz (NYSE: HNZ) put me and my earnings preview to shame. The company delivered a great second quarter. The company, whose colleagues include Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Kellogg (NYSE: K), and Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB), grew its bottom line by over 22% on a per-share basis. Heinz scored $0.87 per diluted share in profit, enough to wallop the analyst community's estimate of $0.76 per share.

Heinz made sure to hedge itself in terms of currency effects. That helped drive the quarter. The company's strong brand portfolio delivered, on an overall basis, almost 6% in organic sales growth. Management was able to leverage the equity of its product line to enact favorable pricing measures. And one of my favorite parts of an earnings report is the statement of cash flows. Cash from operations rose almost 10%, and operating free cash flow by the company's calculation (Heinz adds back disposals of capital property/equipment) increased almost 9%. It would, of course, be nice to see the growth rate of cash flow be closer to the growth rate of earnings, but at least cash generation is trending upward.

Gotta tell you, though, it looks like the market could care less about Heinz and its nifty numbers. As I write this, the stock is down 0.8%. I would have figured on a little more excitement considering that today was something of a calm day in the markets at large. Apparently Wall Street doesn't feel a lot of confidence concerning Heinz and its ability to keep up the good work. All I can say is that no stock should be considered defensive, even Heinz. We're playing by a different rule book, one that was written by a crazy lunatic. It seems like every stock is a gamble. If you have extreme patience and can tie up money for a long, long time, Heinz is not a bad bet at its current dividend yield. Otherwise, you may want to hoard cash.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), whose tech colleagues include Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), had a pretty decent third quarter. The bottom line came in at $0.37 per diluted share. That represented a growth rate of 9%, and it handily beat analyst expectations of $0.31 per share according to Thomson Reuters. I give Dell credit for the significant beat.

However, it should be noted that the bottom line was driven in part by share repurchases. There's nothing necessarily wrong with that, but it does put the big earnings beat in perspective. Indeed, on a dollar basis, profits decreased about 6%. Still, operating income rose 22% on a year-over-year basis.

But then there's the statement of cash flows. Cash was used for operations in the third quarter, a reported $86 million. Last year at this time, Dell generated $998 million from operating activities. That's something to at least think about. In fact, the press release said that slowing demand helped to worsen the cash conversion cycle. Now, I won't crucify Dell on this one cash-flow statement, because the company should still deliver a lot of the green stuff on an annual basis. But even the nine-month statement shows a decline in cash from operations. Again, it's something an investor must consider, and it puts that earnings beat in perspective.

Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS), a bookseller that competes with Borders Group (NYSE: BGP), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), and retailers that stock books such as Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), did not do well during the third quarter. Total sales decreased over 4%. A GAAP loss of $0.34 per share was reported versus a GAAP profit of $0.07 per share in the year-ago period. On an adjusted basis, the loss of $0.21 per share missed the call by $0.05, according to this source.

Okay, is it me, or do these numbers basically broadcast loud and clear that Barnes & Noble is not worth one penny of your investment capital? Besides the above, same-store sales took a big dive of 7.4%. That should be the last nail in the coffin of the current Barnes & Noble story, one that reads like a Stephen King novel. Actually, though, it isn't. Another nail to add would be the fact that guidance has been adjusted lower by management. Now, according to CEO Steve Riggio, gross margins are doing okay. I'll skip that chapter, though, as there isn't much substance to it. Who cares about the gross margin at this point. With traffic down and probably due to get worse, a positive tale of the gross margin isn't going to make me want to buy Barnes & Noble as a value play.

GameStop (NYSE: GME) didn't have a great third quarter. Total sales increased by slightly higher than 5%. On a GAAP basis, earnings dropped three pennies to $0.28 per share. If you exclude items such as debt extinguishment and foreign currency effects, then adjusted earnings per share on a diluted basis increased 19% to $0.38.

The bottom line may have increased by double digits by GameStop's calculation, but there are a couple reasons not to be too impressed by the performance. First, management missed the analyst's call by three pennies (this particular source is using $0.34 as an adjusted number, and comparing it to the expectation of $0.37). Second, and of higher importance to me, same-store sales decreased 1.8% during the quarter.

Now, it is true that the video-game retailer was cycling off a dramatic 46.3% increase in comps in the year-ago period, an expansion that was driven by Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) incredible Halo 3 phenomenon. I realize it was a difficult comparison. But there's no way that an investor can't be disappointed by that figure. The difference between positive 46.3% and negative 1.8% is rather sizable; I think management should have tried a little harder to deliver a number on the positive side of things at the very least.